Washington, DC, February 09, 2012
Housing affordability conditions improved in most metropolitan areas from
softer existing-home prices and record-low mortgage interest rates in the fourth
quarter, with rising sales and lower inventory creating more balanced
conditions, according to the latest quarterly
report by the National
Association of Realtors®.
Introduced with this release is a new annual metro-level housing
affordability index, with historically favorable conditions dominating across
the country.
The median existing single-family home price rose in 29 out of 149
metropolitan statistical areas1 (MSAs) in the fourth quarter from a
year earlier; two were unchanged and 118 areas had price declines.
Lawrence
Yun, NAR chief economist, said the figures reflect greater home sales
activity at lower price points. “Sales have risen strongly in lower price ranges
from one year ago, while sales at the upper end remain sluggish,” he said. “More
importantly, we’re seeing a consistent trend of declining inventory, which means
supply and demand conditions are becoming more balanced in more areas, which
will help stabilize home prices.”
The national median existing single-family home price was $163,500 in the
fourth quarter, down 4.2 percent from $170,600 in the fourth quarter of 2010.
The median is where half sold for more and half sold for less. Distressed
homes2 – foreclosures and short sales which sold at discounts
averaging 15 to 20 percent – accounted for 30 percent of fourth quarter sales;
they were 34 percent a year earlier.
Median price measurement reflects the types of homes that are selling during
the quarter and can be skewed at times because the level of distressed sales,
which artificially depress median prices, can vary notably in given markets.
Annual price measures, also reported today, generally smooth out any quarterly
swings.
“Broadly speaking, the very middle of the country, from the Dakotas and
Nebraska to Oklahoma and Texas, has experienced very stable home price trends
because of stronger job creation in those areas,” Yun said.
Total existing-home sales,3 including single-family and condo,
increased 5.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.42 million in
the fourth quarter from 4.17 million in the third quarter, and were 9.2 percent
above the 4.04 million pace during the fourth quarter of 2010. All regions rose
from the third quarter and from a year ago.
At the end of the fourth quarter there were 2.38 million existing homes
available for sale, which is 21.2 percent lower than the close of the fourth
quarter of 2010 when there were 3.02 million homes on the market.
NAR President Moe Veissi,
broker-owner of Veissi & Associates Inc., in Miami, said market conditions
vary widely around the country. “Even with record high housing affordability
conditions, all real estate is local,” he said. Both buyers and sellers need to
be aware of what works in their local market, and Realtors® are the best
resource because they have unparalleled knowledge of local market conditions and
options.”
NAR’s national Housing Affordability
Index rose to a record high 184.5 in 2011, based on the relationship between
median home price, median family income and average mortgage interest rate. The
higher the index, the greater the household purchasing power; recordkeeping
began in 1970.
An index of 100 is defined as the point where a median-income household has
exactly enough income to qualify for the purchase of a median-priced existing
single-family home, assuming a 20 percent downpayment and 25 percent of gross
income devoted to mortgage principal and interest payments. For first-time
buyers making small downpayments, the affordability levels are relatively
lower.
Metro areas with the greatest housing affordability conditions in 2011
include the Detroit-Warren-Livonia area of Michigan, with an index of 383.4;
Toledo, Ohio, at 242.9; and Decatur, Ill., at 236.8. Only 24 out of 152 metros
measured had an affordability index below 100 in 2011.
“Clearly, the Midwest has the greatest concentration of areas where home
buyers have the strongest purchasing power, followed by the South,” Yun said.
“Metros on the West Coast and along the Northeastern seaboard have generally
higher-priced homes, which account for lower affordability.”
Between 2010 and 2011, in markets where comparisons are available, all but 2
out of 148 areas showed improvement in housing affordability, and 69 MSAs had
double-digit increases in affordability conditions.
The share of all-cash home purchases in the fourth quarter was 29 percent,
unchanged from the third quarter; they were 30 percent in the fourth quarter of
2010. Investors, who are drawn by bargain prices and account for the bulk of
cash purchases, accounted for 19 percent of transactions in the third quarter;
they were 20 percent in the third quarter and 19 percent a year ago.
First-time buyers purchased 33 percent of homes in the fourth quarter; they
were 32 percent in both the third quarter and the fourth quarter of 2010.
In the condo sector, metro area condominium and cooperative prices – covering
changes in 54 metro areas – showed the national median existing-condo price was
$160,800 in the fourth quarter, which is 1.7 percent below the fourth quarter of
2010. Ten metros showed increases in their median condo price from a year ago,
one was unchanged and 43 areas had declines.
Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 6.3 percent in the
fourth quarter and are 3.7 percent above the fourth quarter of 2010. The median
existing single-family home price in the Northeast fell 4.6 percent to $229,200
in the fourth quarter from a year ago.
In the Midwest, existing-home sales increased 7.0 percent in the fourth
quarter and are 14.1 percent higher than a year ago. The median existing
single-family home price in the Midwest declined 3.3 percent to $134,100 in the
fourth quarter from the fourth quarter in 2010.
Existing-home sales in the South rose 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter and
are 9.1 percent above the same quarter in 2010. The median existing
single-family home price in the South was $146,500 in the fourth quarter, down
3.8 percent from a year earlier.
Existing-home sales in the West increased 8.1 percent in the fourth quarter
and are 8.4 percent higher than a year ago. The median existing single-family
home price in the West declined 4.2 percent to $205,200 in the fourth quarter
from the fourth quarter of 2010.
The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is
America’s largest trade association, representing 1 million members involved in
all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.