At Miami economic forum, a sense of cautious
optimism
MIAMI – Jan. 16, 2012 – Condo Vultures founder Peter Zalewski sees more
confidence in the real estate market this year, as high-rise towers return and
prices for luxury real estate inch off a bottom. That could be a
problem.
“My biggest concern for 2012 is bravado,” he told an audience
during a Friday morning panel discussion on the development industry. “You are
starting to see some egos return. You’re starting to see some optimism in
pricing.”
Optimism – or what passes for optimism in the post-bust South
Florida – set the tone for the Greater Miami Chamber of Commerce’s second annual
economic forum.
Bankers said they had money to lend, but few businesses
profitable enough for safe loans. Builders said they were almost certain housing
prices have finally hit a bottom.
Trade and tourism watchers said foreign
buying power continues to shield South Florida from the full impact of domestic
economic woes.
Zalewski, who started his Vultures brokerage six years ago
in anticipation of a historic real estate bust, specializes in distressed real
estate. With condo towers in pre-sales once again and some going vertical, he
warned that developers may once again be over-estimating demand for pricey
apartments.
“There’s been a lot of hoopla. If these things stall in their
tracks, it could create some bad buzz that I think would take us a long time to
recover from,” said Zalewski, who also writes a monthly column for The Miami
Herald’s Business Monday magazine.
Several speakers at the daylong event
at Jungle Island shared an outlook that conditions have improved enough to make
2012 a turning point, with growth slowly gaining steam toward normalcy. But
memories of past optimism tempered some of the rosy comments.
Ramiro
Ortiz, a Miami banker turned consultant, opened a finance and retail discussion
by reminding the audience that, in the same room last year, speakers were
bidding good riddance to 2010 and expecting a strong 2011.
“Here we are a
year later,” he said. “I would say good riddance to 2011.”
Among the
highlights from Friday’s forum:
• Miami-Dade’s retail industry is
performing well. Allen Morris, CEO of the Allen Morris Co. commercial brokerage,
said retail vacancies were a fraction of the office sector. Only about 4 percent
of Miami-Dade’s retail space is available, compared to about 14 percent for
office. Industrial space falls roughly in the middle at 8 percent
vacant.
• Bank executives insisted they want to lend money, but that
demand from small businesses is too low.
“Whoever wants it, come and get
it,” said Adolfo Henriques, president of Gibraltar Private Bank in Miami. “We
are flush with cash.”
He said his staff rarely hears from stable
businesses looking for a loan to fund growth. Instead, most loan requests come
from marginal companies needing cash to survive.
• Don’t expect a housing
rebound to spark a big return to hiring in the building industry. Carlos
Gonzalez, head of the Southeast Florida division for Lennar, said the national
homebuilder expects to expand in 2012. But its payrolls won’t, at least not
locally.
“I don’t see any hiring this year,” he said. “I am growing my
business.”
• The construction industry shakeout continues. Ed McNeil,
head of Florida operations for Turner Construction, said the widespread failures
of contractors in commercial building did not materialize in 2009 and 2010,
despite a nearly idle industry. But in 2011, firms began to go bankrupt and he
expects more in 2012. “How long can you hold your breath in this distressed
market?”
• Presidential politics looms large in predicting the future of
finance. Ken Thomas, a local banking consultant, said he expects the Federal
Reserve to continue pumping cash into the financial system by launching a third
effort called “quantitative easing” or “QE3.”
Thomas said the influx of
cash should help the economy in the short term, boosting President Barack
Obama’s reelection chances. The president appoints the Fed chairman, currently
Ben Bernanke.
“Ben Bernanke wants to keep his job,” Thomas said. “No
Republican will keep him. The only one who will is Obama.”
• Corporate
America seems extremely poised for major hiring and spending.
James
Glassman, an economist with JPMorgan, presented data showing national business
profits were up at levels far above past recoveries. He expected that to spark
more hiring, particularly among younger workers, who have been hit hardest by
the unemployment crisis. As younger workers feel secure in their careers,
first-time homebuyers should surge after years of delayed purchases.
He
compared the current dynamics to the 1950s, when homebuying soared as an entire
generation of young people made up for lost time.
“The recession is doing
to our young people what the war did to the baby boomers,” he said, referring to
the generation born after World War II as the country returned to normalcy.
“Young people are seeing their situations improve the most.”